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Once again, the capacity of China's packaging paper is expanding.

[China Packaging Network News] [guide] in 1977, when the Cultural Revolution ended, one billion people needed about 4 million tons of paper, and most of these 4 million tons were used for wool selection, textbooks and newspapers. The demand for wrapping paper was almost insignificant.

The sky is booming, and China's packaging paper is expanding once again. In the past March 2017, Chenming Group officially signed a contract for Henan 1.2 million tons * packaging paper project with an investment of 6 billion yuan and reached a preliminary agreement with Guangxi forest paper integration project with an investment of 15 billion yuan by Liwen paper.

The emergence of large projects such as Liwen, Chenming and Taiyang, and the capacity expansion of Jiulong, Huatai and Bohui on the existing basis indicate that China's packaging paper industry has once again set off a trend of capacity expansion.

Recent new capacity inventory of packaging paper industry

In view of the extremely good profit situation last year, the paper industry has temporarily forgotten the painful memory of extreme pressure under the low paper price in the past five years, and set off a wave of capacity expansion again.

In early March, Liwen paper has reached a preliminary agreement with Wuzhou City, Guangxi, which will invest 15 billion yuan to build Liwen paper products circular economy industrial park in Wuzhou City to produce packaging paper, toilet paper and other products.

In early March, Sun Paper announced that it would have a production capacity of 1 million tons by 2018, including 200000 tons * special cultural paper project and 800000 tons * packaging paperboard project.

In mid February, Jiulong paper, a domestic packaging paper manufacturer, decided to increase its production capacity by 1.2 million tons in Quanzhou, Tangshan (Hebei Yongxin) and Shenyang.

On February 13, 2017, a message came from Jiangmen Huatai Paper that the company planned to build a corrugated paper production line with a capacity of 300000 tons in the new year.

On the evening of January 5, 2017, Jiangsu Bohui Paper Industry Co., Ltd. plans to invest in the construction of phase II project with an annual output of 750000 tons * packaging paperboard. It is estimated that the project will invest 3.231 billion yuan and can produce 750000 tons of coated white cardboard after it is put into operation.

In early January 2017, the 22nd regiment of the second division of Xinjiang production and Construction Corps signed a cooperation framework agreement with R & F packaging company to build a new corrugated paper plant in Xinjiang with an annual output of 200000 tons.

At the end of December 2014, China Paper Group's 15 billion yuan white cardboard project was officially started. Although the project construction was delayed, it should be put into operation before 2018.

Summary of new paper production capacity in 2017

According to incomplete statistics, the new paper production capacity to be put into operation this year is as high as millions of tons, and many small paper mills have not been completely abolished as expected.

Recently, Hebei Tangshan Yutian Changtai paper industry, which has stopped production for more than a year, is expected to resume production. At present, the company plans to start purchasing waste paper on March 14. Two paper machines have been put into operation in Changtai paper phase I project. The No. 1 machine has an annual output of 200000 tons of gypsum board face paper, and the No. 2 machine has an annual output of 300000 tons of cowhide face paper, which was put into production in October 2013.

According to * news, the first phase of Rongcheng paper Hubei new plant is expected to be put into operation in the third quarter of 2017, and the first phase capacity of Rongcheng Hubei new plant is as high as 850000 tons.

In East China, the first phase of Jiangsu new power thermoelectric Paper Co., Ltd. with an annual output of 200000 tons of high tile paper is expected to be put into operation in October 2018.

The capacity of Liwen packaging paper was increased, and the new capacity of 400000 tons in Jiangxi was completed in August 2017. After completion and operation, the production capacity of Liwen paper is expected to reach 6 million tons.

In 2016, Qixiang paper expanded the phase IV new project with an annual output of 200000 tons * packaging paper, which is expected to be put into operation in May 2017.

The 700000 ton * industrial packaging paper expansion project of Lulin paper industry, with an investment of 1.64 billion yuan and an area of 540 mu, has been delayed for one year, but with the completion of the paper price, the project will be upgraded and accelerated again, and is expected to be put into operation within the year.

In addition, there are the 400000 ton project of Xinya paper in Xinxiang and the 400000 ton expansion project of APP Jingui in Guangxi.

The demand for wrapping paper will inevitably decline rapidly in the future

For the recent series of actions of paper giants, Bao Xiaobian said he didn't really understand them. For the investment projects of billions and tens of billions at every turn, the paper mill that has just got out of trouble is so aggressive that it makes people feel a little fierce.

Let's take a look at the current tragedy. After the Spring Festival, paper mills in North, central and Northwest China can hardly receive orders. South and East China, which has hematopoietic function and stable foreign trade exports, are also depressed. The weakness of the domestic paper packaging market exceeded everyone's expectations. In February, PPI hit a six-year high, but consumer CPI fell sharply, indicating that our domestic demand is shrinking at an incredible rate.

In the next year or two, the rise of raw materials, labor, tax burden and logistics will always be transmitted to the consumer terminal, which will further weaken consumers' purchasing power and lead to further contraction of market demand. With the real estate regulated, the monetary policy tends to be stable and the Sino US trade war has quietly started, domestic demand is facing the test of cliff decline. The long-term existence of a large number of enterprises in China's overcapacity industries, the widening gap between the rich and the poor, housing loan overdraft consumption capacity, the disappearance of demographic dividend and the sharp increase of unemployment will greatly limit the recovery of China's consumer market.

If we take a longer view, we will be in the debt repayment period in the next ten or even twenty years. During this period, there was no consumption.

Bao Xiaobian checked the 1980 statistical bulletin on national economic and social development issued by the National Bureau of statistics. After ten years of catastrophe and three years of economic recovery, China's total output of paper and paperboard (including domestic paper and industrial paper) was only 5.35 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9%. In other words, at the end of the cultural revolution in 1977, the demand for paper by one billion people was about 4 million tons, and most of these 4 million tons were used for wool selection, textbook and newspaper printing, and the demand for wrapping paper was hardly worth mentioning.

Nowadays, it is unimaginable that the packaging paper industry still insists on expanding production capacity when the domestic packaging paper demand will inevitably decline rapidly.


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